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Australian Wool Production Forecast Update – April 2013
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has increased the forecast of shorn wool production for 2012/13 to 350mkg, 2.3% above the 342mkg produced in 2011/12. The increase is due to an expected 3.3% rise in the number of sheep shorn, partly offset by 1.1% fall in average fleece weight
The Committee’s first projection for 2013/14 has been set at 345 mkgs, down 1.4% from 2012/13, as a result of an expected decrease in sheep numbers and a reduction in average fleece weight next season.
The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has increased the 2012/13 shorn wool production forecast to 350 million kilograms (mkg) greasy, up 2.3% from 2011/12 levels.
Committee chairman Russell Pattinson commented that reports from state committees and recent data such as Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) year on year pre-sale wool test data (+3% till end March) were the main reasons for the small upward revision in production for this season.
Wool production gains for 2012/13 are a result of increases in New South Wales, South Australia and Western Australia, which have more than offset the slight decreases in wool production in Victoria, Tasmania and Queensland.
The AWPFC reports higher opening sheep and sheep shorn numbers for this season, and a slightly lower fall in fleece weights than previously expected, as being the key drivers in the increased forecast from the December estimate.
The AWPFC has also made the first forecast for the 2013/14 season, with a slight decrease in wool production (-1.4%) to 345mkgs. This decrease is largely due to an expected:
- Decrease in opening sheep numbers, as a result of increased sheep and lamb slaughtering’s this season; and
- A reduction in average fleece weight as a result of the dry seasonal conditions being experienced across many woolgrowing regions.
| Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia | |||||
| Parameter | 2011/12 Final Estimate |
2012/13 Fourth Forecast |
Change |
2013/14 Initial Projection |
Change y-o-y (%) |
|
Opening sheep numbers |
73.1 |
75.1 |
2.7% |
74.4 | -1.0% |
|
Sheep numbers shorn |
76.4 |
78.9 |
3.3% |
78.5 | -0.6% |
|
Average cut per head |
4.48 |
4.43 |
-1.1% |
4.37 | -1.4% |
|
Shorn wool production |
342 |
350 |
2.3% |
345 | -1.4% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
| Table 2: Total greasy wool production by state - 2011/12 and 2012/13 forecasts | |||||||
| QLD | NSW | VIC | TAS | SA | WA | National | |
|
2011/12 Final Estimate |
13.7 |
122.3 |
78.7 |
10.3 | 53.2 | 63.9 |
342 |
|
2012/13 April Forecast |
13.7 |
125.5 |
76.9 |
10.1 | 55.0 | 68.6 |
350 |
|
Change y-o-y (%) |
-0.3% |
2.6% |
-2.3% |
-1.8% | 3.3% | 7.4% |
2.3% |
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding
The National Committee drew on advice from the six State Committees, each of which includes brokers, growers, private treaty merchants, representatives from State Departments of Agriculture, and the Australian Wool Testing Authority.
Data and input was also drawn from AWEX, wool exporters, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABARES, AWTA and Meat and Livestock Australia.
The full forecast report will be available on the AWI website from 6th of May 2013.