04/07/2008

Australian wool production to fall slightly in 2008/09

Total Australian wool production is forecast to decline slightly in the 2008/09 season, despite expected higher output in Queensland and NSW.

For 2008/09, shorn wool production is forecast at 385 mkg greasy - a 4% decline from 2007/08. High global grain prices and continuing dry conditions in some parts of eastern Australia are contributing to a decline in sheep numbers, and hence lower overall production.

Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson said, “We are expecting a rebound in Queensland wool production and a modest rise in NSW production in 2008/09, but unfortunately, this will not be enough to counterbalance the reduced production in the other states.”

“Once again, parts of eastern Australia have started the pasture growing season with rainfall well below normal. The most extreme example of this is Tasmania, with the southern region and east coast continuing to be ravaged by one of the worst droughts in living memory,” he said.

A lack of autumn rainfall in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and many parts of NSW has increased sheep turn-off for slaughtering and live sheep export, while lamb slaughterings have been remarkably robust for much of 2007/08.

In Western Australia, high global grain prices have provided a strong incentive for farmers to sow additional winter crop at the expense of sheep grazing.

Committee Chairman Russell Pattinson said, “All these factors combined have added downward pressure to Australian sheep numbers over the course of the 2007/08 season. As such, we have fewer sheep in Australia at the start of the 2008/09 season compared with 12 months ago, which will result in fewer sheep available for shearing over the next 12 months.”

A full report of the latest forecasts will be available after 2.00pm Wednesday, 9th July on the AWI website at www.wool.com.au/forecasts.

The next meeting of the AWI Production Forecasting Committee is scheduled for Thursday, 25th September 2008.

Ends