Predicting the Processing Results of Sale Lots. Part 3: Performance of the TEAM Equations for CVH and Romaine

Abstract

The accuracy and precision of predicting CVH and Romaine for single sale lots was assessed using the TEAM-2 and recommended TEAM-3 equations. For TEAM-2 and TEAM-3, the accuracy of predicting CVH was –1.0% and –0.4% respectively, while the 95% confidence limit was ±0.6% for both equations. For Romaine, the accuracy of prediction was 0.8% and 0.1% respectively, with a 95% confidence limit of ±0.3% for both equations. Overall, the TEAM-3 equations performed slightly better than the TEAM-2 equations.

Most wool types were well predicted for CVH and Romaine, with only a few exceptions. For CVH, consistent significant differences were noted for the Control Pieces, Variable Length Pieces, High MFC and Low CVSS sale lots. These differences ranged in value from 1.0%, for Variable Length Pieces predicted using TEAM-3, to –5.4% for Low CVSS sale lots predicted using TEAM-2.

For Romaine, consistent significant differences were noted for the Variable Length Pieces, Variable Length Pieces with Locks, High MFC and Weak Fleece sale lots. These differences ranged in value from -1.1%, for Weak Fleece sale lots predicted using TEAM-2, to 5.0% for Variable Length Pieces with Locks predicted using TEAM-2. The inclusion of additional parameters was assessed for their potential to improve the prediction accuracy of the TEAM-3 components. No additional parameters have been recommended for inclusion in the TEAM-3 equations.

This paper supports the recommendation to adopt the TEAM-3 equations for the prediction of CVH and Romaine for single sale lots.

The ability to predict CVH and Romaine at the sale lot level will assist buyers to more accurately assess the value of lots offered for sale. In addition, this translates into lower risk levels in blend construction thus improving the benefits of staple measured Australian wool to users of such wool. 

Citation

"Predicting the Processing Results of Sale Lots. Part 3: Performance of the TEAM Equations for CVH and Romaine", V.E. Fish, Report RWG 03, Technology & Standards Committee, Raw Wool Group, Hobart Meeting, April 2005